The Ukrainian Map of National Territory in December 2026
This is what the Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Colonel Pavlo Palisa published to the Internet on 5 June 2025. It is what his office projects the Ukraine to look like 18 months from now. The map is very revealing:
https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Palisa%20Map%20June%206%2C%202025.png
In other words, at the highest levels the Ukrainian government expects the Russian military to keep grinding, keep advancing, and keep gobbling up former Ukrainian oblasts.
By late next year, the Ukrainians are projecting that the Russians will have taken a little more than half of the Ukraine under their control, including the east, the northeast, and all of the Black Sea coastal and inland areas, thereby reducing the Ukraine to a far smaller, landlocked country with very dim economic prospects.
Inevitably, the longer that V. Zelensky and NATO drag their heels and prolong the conflict, the more the territory uder Russian control will come to correspond to the areas on this map.
As of today the war has not yet concluded, though the Russians are clearly prevailing on the battlefield. The only way for the Ukraine to preserve at least a semblance of the country that it used to be is to surrender to the Russians and accept the Kremlin’s terms, which V. Zelensky is so far loath to do.
Failing that, the war appears likely to continue until at least late 2026, by which time the Kremlin will have taken roughly 50% to 60% of the former Ukraine’s territory, and may by then be doling out big chunks of the westernmost oblasts to Poland, Hungary and Romania.
By Christmas next year will V. Zelensky even have a country left to loot, exploit and ruthlessly feed into the Russian military’s steadily oncoming meat grinder?
The whole scenario is ghoulish in the extreme, and yet it improbably continues.
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