The Dangerous French Gambit
The recently signed, 10-year military alliance between the Ukraine and France has received very little attention from the legacy news media, but it is as real as can be.
In its blunt language it carries the very real risk of extending the carnage of the Ukraine war much farther afield, by bringing France itself into the crosshairs of the Russian military machine. Here it is, from the website of the Élysée Palace:
It was signed just last month, and clearly presages an alarming escalation of the conflict in the Ukraine, over the coming months and years. When reading through this military treaty, keep in mind that France is a nuclear power, with a full range of nuclear missiles and bombs, including oceangoing “boomers,” submarines that can launch nuclear missiles at sea, whether in the North Atlantic, Caribbean, Mediterranean, Indian Ocean or North Pacific.
There is much to digest in the treaty, but the foundational element is that it formally commits the French government to militarily defend the Ukraine over the next ten years. This raises the dreadful prospect of a direct, French military clash with Russian military forces in the Ukraine.
Read the entire treaty if you like, but here are some of the most important clauses:
The main components of the long-term security commitments provided to Ukraine by France in this Agreement are as follows:
provision of comprehensive assistance to Ukraine for the protection and the restoration of its territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders, as well as economic recovery and reconstruction;
prevention and active deterrence of, and counter-measures against, a new aggression by the Russian Federation;
support for Ukraine’s integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions, including by supporting Ukraine’s accession to the EU and interoperability with NATO.
A number of points jump right off the page:
a) provision of comprehensive assistance to Ukraine for the protection and the restoration of its territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders. Comprehensive assistance covers the waterfront, and seeing as France is a nuclear armed power, raises the potential of a nuclear exchange between Russia and France. Restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity transparently alludes to reversing Russian military and territorial gains in the eastern and southern Ukraine, which clearly carries the very real risk of a Franco-Russian nuclear clash. Russia will not cede the five Ukrainian oblasts that it has incorporated into the Russian Federation, short of military defeat in all-out war, so the threat of warfare between France and Russia is therefore very real. Plot spoiler: the French military tried this same anti-Russian gambit two centuries ago, and suffered 90% casualties and catastrophic defeat.
b) prevention and deterrence of new Russian aggression. For the last two years French mercenaries and Foreign Legion troops have been fighting in the Ukraine. The Russian military forces have killed quite a large number of them. For this clause of the Franco-Ukrainian military pact to have any battlefield teeth, the French military will have to employ tactics and weapons that they so far have not. This clause thus hints at the possible use of nuclear weapons without outright saying so, though the menacing insinuation is there.
c) support for the Ukraine’s accession to the EU and interoperability with NATO. This clause is sly, legal weasel language that crosses one of Russia’s publicly declared red lines: that the Ukraine must remain a militarily and politically neutral, nonaligned state. Indeed, this is one of the foundational, root causes of the present military conflict.
In short, this Franco-Ukrainian military treaty that was signed just one month ago guarantees the continuance of the Ukraine conflict, and even worse than that, all but guarantees its severe escalation, probably before this year is out.
But There Is More
There are other deeply troubling clauses in this disturbing document that most of the world’s news media have soft-pedaled, or have not mentioned at all. Here are a few more distressing passages.
The French Participant will provide military and civil assistance to enable Ukraine to defend its sovereignty, its independence and its territorial integrity in the face of the aggression by the Russian Federation, bilaterally through agreements and through the institutions and organizations to which it is a party.
This is a serious attention grabber. Though the language sounds ambiguous and nonthreatening, when it says that France will militarily assist the Ukraine to defend its territorial integrity against Russian aggression through institutions and organizations to which it is a party - - that means NATO. This is the “gotcha” clause that uses the French military as the NATO Article 5 tripwire to more openly and broadly enter the bloody Ukrainian fray against the Russian Federation.
It goes on:
In the event of future Russian armed attack against Ukraine …………. the French Participant would provide Ukraine with swift and sustained security assistance, modern military equipment across all domains as necessary …….
I reiterate, France is a nuclear power, with a full brace of weapons in its nuclear quiver; so when the military agreement says that France would provide the Ukraine with swift security assistance and modern military equipment across all domains as necessary, the words “modern military equipment across all domains” obviously encompass the universe of modern military technology. Sinisterly, all domains of modern military equipment necessarily include nuclear weaponry: nuclear bombs, torpedoes, missiles, nuclear mines, orbital or near-orbital EMP weaponry, everything.
I won’t cite every clause in the document. The whole thing is very concerning, in that it comes very close to full on declaring war against Russia. That’s my interpretation, and no doubt that is the spirit in which this Franco-Ukrainian military treaty has been received in the Kremlin.
Let me close with this:
The Participants will work together on ensuring a sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring Russian aggression in the future, through the continued provision of security assistance and modern military equipment, across the land, air, sea, space and cyber domains – prioritizing, but not limited to: air defence, artillery, long-range firepower, armoured vehicles, air force capabilities and other key capabilities.
The French Participant will, alongside other international partners, help Ukraine to enhance its ability to deter and defend against external aggressors by developing modern Future Defence Forces that are increasingly interoperable with NATO and contribute to NATO forces.
More disingenuous, highly dangerous, diplomatic blah-blah-blah. France and the Ukraine agree to ensure a military force to defend the Ukraine and deter Russian aggression using modern military equipment across land, air, sea, space and cyber domains, using air defense, artillery, long-range firepower, armor, air force - - and pay especially close attention - - other key capabilities. And what might “other key capabilities” be?
Nukes??
Then the document goes on to again talk about Ukrainian military interoperability with NATO and contributing to NATO forces. This is the precise issue that created the war in the first place, and that will inevitably cause it to continue and escalate.
The agreement mentions other international partners in addition to France who will assist the Ukraine in these military endeavors. Of course, the “other international partners” are NATO members Germany, the U.K., the U$$A, Inc., Canada, Romania, Poland, etc.
This document is tremendously sobering. It bodes extremely ill for the Ukraine, for France, for Russia, and far beyond.
Sad to say, France, the Ukraine and NATO are doubling down hard on a course of action that is headed towards a nuclear conflict in Europe that could very easily cross the Atlantic to the CONUS/U$$A, Inc.
You don’t want to think about these sorts of things, let alone see them take frightful form in daily life, but that is where this military agreement between France and the Ukraine is leading.
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