How I Know WW III Is On The Way
It’s simple really. Russia is overtly, rapidly ramping up for a war that is well above and beyond the conflict currently raging in the former Ukraine. At a minimum that implies that the war will spread farther afield to places like the Baltics (Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia), Romania, Moldova, Poland, Finland and maybe even France, Germany, Britain and potentially the U$$A, Inc./CONUS, Canada, etc.
Keep in mind that Russia has so far used only a fractional portion of its military forces in the former Ukraine - - and it is decisively winning that conflict. Crucially, the great bulk of the Russian military machine has not entered the war. It’s being held back. The Russian strategic nuclear forces are entirely intact, which means that at any moment of its choosing the Kremlin can rain nuclear hell on the Pentagon/NATO/EU, largely unopposed, though it has elected not to until this point.
Tellingly, the Russian conventional military production lines are in overdrive. Russia Today is reporting that at Rostec, the sprawling, government military weapons consortium:
production and refurbishment of tanks has increased by 350% since 2022
production of light armor has increased by 300%
production of self-propelled artillery is up times ten
production of towed artillery has increased times fourteen
production of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) is up 200%
rocket munitions production for the MLRS is up 800%
ammunition for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles has increased by 900%
artillery shell production is up 600%
production of rockets for heavy flamethrowers is up 300%
Thousands of foreign mercenaries, many of them from NATO countries, have been fighting (and mostly dying) for the Ukraine since the start of the war more than two years ago.
But with France officially deciding to send upwards of 1,500 troops from the 3rd Infantry Regiment of the Foreign Legion to fight against the Russian army in Slavyansk, in what used to be the eastern Ukraine, France, NATO and Russia are now entering uncharted territory.
How will the Kremlin react to French troops directly on its flank, engaged in combat against the Russian army? And let me say that for all of the evasive equivocating about the Foreign Legion being comprised of non-French soldiers, it is nonetheless commanded by French military officers, and is a formal element of the French military structure. Therefore, it is, indeed, a French army, now engaging Russian forces in combat on the eastern front.
The Russians are very carefully watching all of this with a wary, jaundiced eye. They remember very well the massive Napoleonic invasion of Russia in 1812. They are also well aware of France’s nuclear force de frappe that includes oceangoing “boomers” (large submarines with sea launched ballistic nuclear missiles), and Rafale fighter jets armed with 300 kt. air-to-surface missiles.
France is pointedly pushing the military edge of a very tense geopolitical conflict that is fraught with danger.
Expect an asymmetrical response from the Kremlin. I’m not on the inside of anything anywhere, but my informed impression is that the Russians certainly will respond. At a minimum they will physically obliterate the French troops.
France is a nuclear armed member of NATO, with a previous history of sending a huge invasion force under Napoleon deep into Russian territory.
After a certain point will the Russians one day elect to abruptly put a stop to the military encroachment of NATO by leveling Brussels, Paris, Berlin, Ramstein, London, Helsinki, Warsaw, Kiev, Washington-DC, the Pentagon, Norfolk Naval Base-VA, etc.?
And also sinking every NATO warship and submarine in the Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, Baltic Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea and and Black Sea?
Stay tuned. This is a question that will not require ten years to find the answer, or even five years. The matter will come to a conclusive, irrefragable head within less than five years. Without question there will be very large-scale geopolitical violence in the interim.
This is a war for all the marbles. It is only getting started, and will tremendously increase in scale, scope and intensity. The Russians know that, and are dramatically increasing their military production in preparation.
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